Namibia’s offshore oil and gas discoveries are being promoted as a pathway to economic growth, job creation and energy security. A new case study challenges this narrative, highlighting the financial risks of fossil fuel expansion and questioning whether the promised benefits will reach Namibian communities.

The report examines the economic and development implications of oil and gas exploration in Namibia’s Orange Basin.

Key findings include:

• Limited benefits for domestic energy access: Most planned offshore production targets export markets, while Namibia continues to rely on imported energy and faces electricity access challenges.

• Financial risks: Oil and gas projects expose the country to volatile global prices, potential stranded assets and uncertainty over when public revenues will materialise.

• Uncertain job creation: Oil and gas exploration is capital-intensive, raising questions about whether the sector will create enough jobs to address Namibia’s unemployment challenges.

• Environmental and social concerns: Offshore extraction poses risks to marine biodiversity and coastal ecosystems, while questions remain about whether future revenues will reduce inequality.

• Renewable energy offers an alternative: Namibia has strong solar and wind resources and is already pursuing renewable energy projects, offering opportunities to strengthen domestic energy supply without the same exposure to fossil fuel market risks.

The case study argues that Namibia should carefully assess the long-term costs of offshore oil and gas development against investment in renewable energy, domestic electricity generation and industries capable of creating broader economic opportunities.